Geopolitics and Burmese chronicle history (c. 1486-1555)

If you zoom out from the details of chronicle narrative (c. 1486-1555), geopolitical patterns emerge. States had to be proactive militarily in a prisoner-dilemna-ish sort of way. They could never let down their guard. During the reign of the Burmese king Mingyinyo (r. 1486-1531) at Toungoo:

1. “…military campaigns originated from Toungoo and only rarely was Toungoo ever attacked by other states.”

2. “Min-gyi-nyo alternated between periods of offensive warfare and long periods of peace.”

Fernquist, Jon (2005) "Min-gyi-nyo, the Shan Invasions of Ava(1524-27), and the Beginnings of Expansionary Warfare in Toungoo Burma: 1486-1539," SOAS Bulletin of Burma Research, Vol. 3, No. 2, Autumn 2005.[Link]

When I read up on John_Mearsheimer’s “Offensive Realism” I was struck by the way it seemed to describe the geopolitical situation of Toungoo (c. 1486-1555):

1. “states are not satisfied with a given amount of power, but seek hegemony for security.”

2. “Given the difficulty of determining how much power is enough for today and tomorrow, great powers recognize that the best way to ensure their security is to achieve hegemony now, thus eliminating any possibility of a challenge by another great power. Only a misguided state would pass up an opportunity to become hegemon in the system because it thought it already had sufficient power to survive.”

3. “In this world, there is no such thing as a status quo power, since according to Mearsheimer, ‘a great power that has a marked power advantage over its rivals is likely to behave more aggressively because it has the capability as well as the incentive to do so…states seek regional hegemony. Furthermore, he argues that states attempt to prevent other states from becoming regional hegemons, since peer competitors could interfere in a state's affairs.”

4. “…in an anarchic world composed of sovereign nation-states, each great state tries to acquire the maximum amount of power feasible under the circumstances…the first goal of every great power is to survive, and the more power a nation-state has, the greater its chances of survival in this anarchic world…Great powers that strive for regional or global hegemony, he argues, inevitably provoke other great and lesser powers to form coalitions designed to counter the potential hegemon.”
(Another Source)

Because Mingyinyo (r. 1486-1531) kept Toungoo on a permanent offensive footing:

3. “While the negative demographic impact of warfare rarely had a chance to affect Toungoo’s population, the military activity of Toungoo, Prome, and the Mong Yang Shans had an effect on other regions of Upper Burma.”

4. “So we can posit a differential warfare effect on the population of Upper Burma with some regions experiencing a population decrease, while others such as Toungoo experiencing a relative population increase.

5. “Increases in man and animal power due to the absence of warfare led to more conscriptable adult males, horses, oxen, and elephants creating a resource base for Toungoo’s sudden expansion in the 1530s.”

Fernquist, Jon (2005) "Min-gyi-nyo, the Shan Invasions of Ava(1524-27), and the Beginnings of Expansionary Warfare in Toungoo Burma: 1486-1539," SOAS Bulletin of Burma Research, Vol. 3, No. 2, Autumn 2005.[Link]